The First World War Mod: Serbian Decision Tree
It’s been a while since my last update on the Hearts of Iron 4 WWI Mod. Until now my focus has been on building the map, but lately I’ve been trying to create focus trees for some of the key counrties of the war.
Focus trees are HoI4 feature: a bit like a tech tree, but for political maneuvers. Below is a sample of vanilla Germany’s tree.
Initially a debug feature during the game’s development, they quickly proved to be a very popular form of content. They can transform the way a country is played in the World War II game. One focus might award you new territory (e.g. Germany demands the Sudetenland), while another might enable an entire minigame (Romania partitioning Yugoslavia with its neighbors).
It may be surprising that most of my work so far has been not on the focus tree of Germany, France, or Austria, but Serbia.
The Spark-Striker of 1914
Part of the role of focus trees is to make the war in HoI4 happen. Typically, Germany gets the ability to declare war on Poland via a focus, while Italy can invade Greece in the same way.
I could have given Austria an equivalent ‘War With Serbia’ focus (I probably will, but it’ll be further down the tree, and not typically accessible by 1914). But instead I wanted to represent the incidental way in which the war historically broke out.
As I’ll explain, I’m doing this by giving Serbia a focus which sets up the dominos for Franz Ferdinand’s assasination. The plan is sort of like a prisomer’s dilemma for the Serbian and Austrian players:
|
Austria sends Franz on Imperial Visit |
Austria doesn’t Franz on Imperial Visit |
|
|
Serbia supports Narodna Odbrana |
Everybody loses (Franz is shot, Serbia gets invaded) |
Serbia wins (Bosnia secedes peacefully and joins Serbia) |
|
Serbia doesn’t support Narodna Odbrana |
Austria wins (South Serbs placated by visit, empire can be reformed) |
Status quo |
Historically, a war wasn’t really in the interest of either party: it destroyed the Austro-Hungarian empire, and the Serbian government was desperate to avoid invasion after the assasination.
But my plan is to make the incentives for Serbia to support Franz’ assasins, and the incentives for Austria to send Franz on his fatal tour, too great. This puts the countries on a collision course.
Overview of the Tree
Below is the tree in its entirity:
Let’s look at each section.
On the left, a political branch and a diplomacy with the Great Powers branch are gated behind Support the Narodna Odbrana.
This first focus will set up assassins in Bosnia. If Austria takes their own Imperial Tour of Bosnia focus, Franz will be assassinated, and Austria will get the option to go to war with Serbia.
With so much beneath it, the player is very incentivised to take this focus.
On the left, you choose between supporting
the radical Serbs who wanted war with Austria immediately (these were the ilk of the Black Hand - the organisation responsible for the killing of Franz), or
the moderates (this was historic), who only wanted to fight Austria if Serbia was strong enough, and wanted Entente support.
You don’d need to choose between these two outright: some options are available to either branch.
At the end of the political branch, you can trigger a civil war between the Black Hand and Serbia’s moderate government.
As the moderates, victory means you maintain your claims on Serbia, and no longer risk provoking Austria with an assasin.
As the Black Hand, you’ll have some extra focuses to assasinate other heads of state, such as the king of Montenegro.
The centre branch is for dealing with the Great Powers.
You can forge ties with France and Russia, reaping huge financial rewards (this was historically the case)
Or, you can return to Austria’s orbit.
Serbia was an Austrian ally up until a coup in 1903, after which Serbs became more conscientious of their south-slav bretherin living in Austrian borders in Bosnia, Croatia, and Slovenia.
But if you forsake your economic independence (and stab Montenegro in the back as compensation to Austria) you can get bits of Bosnia, as well as treaty ports and economic support from the dual Monarchy.
Again, some options are available whether you align with the Entente or Austria.
At the end of the tree, there are military bonuses referencing historic events in the Serbian front:
The first ground-to-air kill was thought to happen in Serbia: shot down by the Tanasko Rajic Regiment
Serbia took measures to evacuate its wealth and army as the tides turned against them. Hundreds of thousands of Serb soldiers and civilians fled through Albania to govern in exile from Corfu in the Great Retreat.
As many Serbs and South Slavs fought, with low enthusiasm, for Austria, Tsar Nicholas II of Russia decided to give ethnic Serbs who were captured from the Austrian army the chance to fight for Serbia instead. This was the First Serbian Volunteer Division.
Finally, if you gain enough diplomatic support, or industrial capacity, you can pursue an alliance with the Entente and declare war on Austria.
On the right, you deal with your fellow Balkan nations, prepare for the First (and perhaps Second) Balkan War, and get some military bonuses.
Historically, the Balkan League was brokered by Russia between Serbia and Bulgaria, with Bulgaria as its de facto leader.
As I’m not giving Bulgaria a focus tree, I decided to give Serbia the primary role in forming the League.
By promising land to Montenegro and Bulgaria, you can get them into your new faction. Greece also gets the chance to join, but I plan to make this a British focus rather than a Serbian one (Britain urged the League to accept Greece, historically).
The seeds of the 2nd Balkan War are sewn when you allow Russian or Austrian Arbitrartion in Macedonia
Land in Macedonia was claimed by both Serbia and Bulgaria (and contained both ethnicities)
The two countries allowed Russia to arbitrate on any disagreements when Turkey was defeated. Bulgaria presumed Russia would favour them, but this did not happen.
Furthermore, Serbia was forced to give up its hold of Albania by Austria (who wanted an Albanian puppet), so was unwilling to give up its winnings in much of Macedonia.
The result was the 2nd Balkan War: Bulgaria attacked Serbia, who retaliated with the remains of the Balkan League at its side. Turkey and Romania joined too, and Bulgaria lost most of its winnings in the 1st war.
You can also forsake Bulgarian support altogether, in exchange for Romania.
After building up your military, and seeking foreign equipment imports (historically, Serbia used large amounts of French equipment by the end of the war), you can come to rival Bulgaria, the “Prussia of the Balkans”, and take them on directly.
You can also decide what to do with your conquered land.
Historically, Serbia mistreated its new citizens, ethnically cleansing Macedonia and Kosovo by settling Serbs and evicting Turks, Albanians, and Bulgarians.
This fact was uncovered by Carnegie Comission, despite efforts to downplay it by the British minister to Serbia - Dayrell Crackenthorpe (who, along with the war hawk Nicholas Hartwig and the peace-minded Leon Descos, are available as Entente advisors to Serbia)
Summary
My aim with the Serbian focus tree is to support a handful of stories for Serbia:
Do you abide by the Entente and play it safe, or become a pariah governed by the Black Hand and take on Serbia’s rivals forcefully?
Do you align with the Entente’s economic might or return to the safe orbit of Austria for territorial concessions and agricultural investment?
Who joins your Balkan League, and who do you betray?
Can you pry the South Slav elements of your neighbors away without causing a war?
Can you form Yugoslavia?
An enormous amount of research has supported this task. The Sleepwalkers gives incredible detail on Serbia’s actions leading up to the war (as well as Austria), while I found Ring of Steel to be handy too. It’s become much more complex than I’d hoped, but I feel now that I’ve created one focus tree, the others should be easier.
